Starters Only (Price Edge)

Points, rebounds and assists for players averaging 30 or more minutes over their last ten games, whose lines move the least. Selected by price edge instead of stat gap: the model's chance for the marked side, set against the quoted price, must exceed the chance that price needs by about one point, and comparisons are ordered by that price edge.

18-9 · 27 graded · break-even 54.7%

Nov 6

Fingerprint 29456bd6ab6d55d9893ff35c28b455cd30b219a32d55146fa0a5b1413e909d95

Brandon Miller · Points Under 22.5

Replaced before tip-off

BOS @ CHA · -125 at DraftKings · break-even 55.6% · projection 20.2

Published Nov 6 10:50 AM ET · replaced 12:50 PM ET

Brandon Miller · Points Over 5.5

Replaced before tip-off

BOS @ CHA · -117 at betPARX · break-even 53.9% · projection 20.1

Published Nov 6 1:20 PM ET · replaced 1:21 PM ET

Brandon Miller · Points Over 5.5

Covered · 8

BOS @ CHA · -117 at betPARX · break-even 53.9% · projection 20.8

Published Nov 6 1:22 PM ET · close 22.5 (-110)

Trae Young · Assists Under 9.5

Replaced before tip-off

WAS @ ATL · -102 at FanDuel · break-even 50.5% · projection 8.5

Published Nov 6 5:11 AM ET · replaced 5:21 PM ET

Trae Young · Assists Under 9.5

Replaced before tip-off

WAS @ ATL · -130 at FanDuel · break-even 56.5% · projection 8.5

Published Nov 6 5:21 PM ET · replaced 5:51 PM ET

Trae Young · Assists Under 9.5

Missed · 10

WAS @ ATL · -120 at Caesars · break-even 54.5% · projection 8.6

Published Nov 6 5:51 PM ET · close 9.5 (-145)

Donovan Mitchell · Points Under 23.5

Replaced before tip-off

PHI @ CLE · -108 at FanDuel · break-even 51.9% · projection 19.3

Published Nov 5 4:38 PM ET · replaced 5:11 AM ET

Donovan Mitchell · Points Under 25.5

Replaced before tip-off

PHI @ CLE · -123 at DraftKings · break-even 55.2% · projection 23.4

Published Nov 6 7:19 AM ET · replaced 6:21 PM ET

Evan Mobley · Points Under 17.5

Replaced before tip-off

PHI @ CLE · -114 at FanDuel · break-even 53.3% · projection 14.8

Published Nov 5 4:38 PM ET · replaced 5:11 AM ET

Evan Mobley · Points Over 4.5

Replaced before tip-off

PHI @ CLE · -105 at Bally Bet · break-even 51.2% · projection 18.4

Published Nov 6 11:00 AM ET · replaced 6:21 PM ET

Evan Mobley · Points Over 4.5

Replaced before tip-off

PHI @ CLE · -104 at Bally Bet · break-even 51.0% · projection 18.2

Published Nov 6 6:21 PM ET · replaced 7:06 PM ET

Evan Mobley · Points Over 4.5

Covered · 22

PHI @ CLE · -112 at Bally Bet · break-even 52.8% · projection 18.5

Published Nov 7 7:07 PM ET · close 4.5 (-112)

Evan Mobley · Rebounds Under 8.5

Replaced before tip-off

PHI @ CLE · -114 at FanDuel · break-even 53.3% · projection 7.5

Published Nov 5 4:38 PM ET · replaced 5:11 AM ET

James Harden · Assists Under 6.5

Replaced before tip-off

PHI @ CLE · -118 at FanDuel · break-even 54.1% · projection 5.2

Published Nov 6 7:38 PM ET · replaced 5:11 AM ET

James Harden · Points Under 17.5

Replaced before tip-off

PHI @ CLE · -125 at FanDuel · break-even 55.6% · projection 14.5

Published Nov 6 7:38 PM ET · replaced 5:11 AM ET

James Harden · Points Over 4.5

Covered · 17

PHI @ CLE · -104 at Bally Bet · break-even 51.0% · projection 18.1

Published Nov 7 7:20 PM ET · close 4.5 (-104)

Jaylen Brown · Points Over 5.5

Replaced before tip-off

PHI @ CLE · -106 at Bally Bet · break-even 51.5% · projection 20

Published Nov 6 11:00 AM ET · replaced 6:21 PM ET

Joel Embiid · Points Under 20.5

Replaced before tip-off

PHI @ CLE · -118 at FanDuel · break-even 54.1% · projection 16

Published Nov 5 4:38 PM ET · replaced 5:11 AM ET

Joel Embiid · Points Under 21.5

Replaced before tip-off

PHI @ CLE · -107 at DraftKings · break-even 51.7% · projection 19.3

Published Nov 6 5:11 AM ET · replaced 6:21 PM ET

Joel Embiid · Points Under 21.5

Replaced before tip-off

PHI @ CLE · -124 at DraftKings · break-even 55.4% · projection 19.4

Published Nov 6 6:21 PM ET · replaced 7:06 PM ET

Joel Embiid · Points Under 21.5

Covered · 6

PHI @ CLE · -122 at FanDuel · break-even 54.9% · projection 19.4

Published Nov 7 7:07 PM ET · close 21.5 (-125)

Joel Embiid · Rebounds Under 9.5

Replaced before tip-off

PHI @ CLE · -142 at DraftKings · break-even 58.7% · projection 8.4

Published Nov 6 5:11 AM ET · replaced 6:21 PM ET

Joel Embiid · Rebounds Under 9.5

Covered · 7

PHI @ CLE · -130 at BetMGM · break-even 56.5% · projection 8.4

Published Nov 7 7:10 PM ET · close 9.5 (-125)

Tyrese Maxey · Points Under 24.5

Replaced before tip-off

PHI @ CLE · -104 at FanDuel · break-even 51.0% · projection 22

Published Nov 5 4:38 PM ET · replaced 5:11 AM ET

Tyrese Maxey · Points Under 25.5

Covered · 17

PHI @ CLE · -104 at DraftKings · break-even 51.0% · projection 23.7

Published Nov 7 7:00 PM ET · close 25.5 (-108)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Assists Under 6.5

Replaced before tip-off

OKC @ MEM · -136 at FanDuel · break-even 57.6% · projection 5.2

Published Nov 6 7:59 PM ET · replaced 5:11 AM ET

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Points Under 32.5

Replaced before tip-off

OKC @ MEM · -130 at FanDuel · break-even 56.5% · projection 26.3

Published Nov 6 7:59 PM ET · replaced 5:11 AM ET

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Points Under 32.5

Replaced before tip-off

OKC @ MEM · -118 at DraftKings · break-even 54.1% · projection 27.4

Published Nov 6 5:11 AM ET · replaced 7:36 PM ET

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Points Under 32.5

Covered · 28

OKC @ MEM · -108 at DraftKings · break-even 51.9% · projection 27.5

Published Nov 7 7:37 PM ET · close 33.5 (-118)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Rebounds Under 4.5

Replaced before tip-off

OKC @ MEM · -114 at FanDuel · break-even 53.3% · projection 3.8

Published Nov 6 7:59 PM ET · replaced 5:11 AM ET

Darius Acuff Jr. · Points Under 23.5

Replaced before tip-off

SAS @ SAC · -116 at DraftKings · break-even 53.7% · projection 21.5

Published Nov 6 5:11 AM ET · replaced 4:21 PM ET

Darius Acuff Jr. · Points Under 23.5

Replaced before tip-off

SAS @ SAC · -105 at DraftKings · break-even 51.2% · projection 21.3

Published Nov 6 4:21 PM ET · replaced 7:51 PM ET

Darius Acuff Jr. · Points Under 24.5

Covered · 22

SAS @ SAC · -116 at DraftKings · break-even 53.7% · projection 21.6

Published Nov 7 7:51 PM ET · close 24.5 (-116)

Domantas Sabonis · Rebounds Under 13.5

Replaced before tip-off

SAS @ SAC · -140 at BetMGM · break-even 58.3% · projection 12.2

Published Nov 6 7:59 AM ET · replaced 4:21 PM ET

Domantas Sabonis · Rebounds Under 13.5

Replaced before tip-off

SAS @ SAC · -135 at DraftKings · break-even 57.5% · projection 12.2

Published Nov 6 6:00 PM ET · replaced 7:51 PM ET

Luka Doncic · Assists Under 7.5

Replaced before tip-off

POR @ LAL · -124 at betPARX · break-even 55.4% · projection 6.6

Published Nov 6 12:00 PM ET · replaced 4:36 PM ET

Luka Doncic · Points Over 12.5

Replaced before tip-off

POR @ LAL · -125 at Bally Bet · break-even 55.6% · projection 34.6

Published Nov 6 12:10 PM ET · replaced 4:36 PM ET

Luka Doncic · Points Over 12.5

Covered · 53

POR @ LAL · -122 at Bally Bet · break-even 54.9% · projection 34.6

Published Nov 6 4:36 PM ET · close 12.5 (-118)

Walker Kessler · Points Under 12.5

Missed · 16

POR @ LAL · -113 at DraftKings · break-even 53.0% · projection 10.5

Published Nov 6 4:36 PM ET · close 12.5 (-105)

Walker Kessler · Rebounds Under 10.5

Replaced before tip-off

POR @ LAL · -137 at DraftKings · break-even 57.8% · projection 8.9

Published Nov 6 5:11 AM ET · replaced 4:36 PM ET

Walker Kessler · Rebounds Under 10.5

Missed · 12

POR @ LAL · -125 at BetMGM · break-even 55.6% · projection 8.9

Published Nov 6 4:36 PM ET · close 10.5 (-115)

Nov 5

Fingerprint cb906c9a1e216c03060e04a39716c02f08d49737aa8a69ded91c6ed2bf426571

Franz Wagner · Points Under 22.5

Replaced before tip-off

ORL @ PHX · -106 at FanDuel · break-even 51.5% · projection 19.1

Published Nov 5 12:17 AM ET · replaced 5:29 AM ET

Franz Wagner · Rebounds Under 6.5

Replaced before tip-off

ORL @ PHX · -140 at DraftKings · break-even 58.3% · projection 5.4

Published Nov 5 5:18 AM ET · replaced 5:29 AM ET

Franz Wagner · Rebounds Under 6.5

Replaced before tip-off

ORL @ PHX · -140 at DraftKings · break-even 58.3% · projection 5.1

Published Nov 5 5:29 AM ET · replaced 3:34 PM ET

Franz Wagner · Rebounds Under 6.5

Replaced before tip-off

ORL @ PHX · -153 at DraftKings · break-even 60.5% · projection 5.1

Published Nov 5 3:35 PM ET · replaced 8:20 PM ET

Franz Wagner · Rebounds Under 6.5

Missed · 8

ORL @ PHX · -150 at BetMGM · break-even 60.0% · projection 5.1

Published Nov 6 8:20 PM ET · close 6.5 (-150)

Davion Mitchell · Assists Under 7.5

Replaced before tip-off

MIA @ GSW · -114 at FanDuel · break-even 53.3% · projection 6.1

Published Nov 5 6:18 AM ET · replaced 4:04 PM ET

Davion Mitchell · Points Over 2.5

Covered · 22

MIA @ GSW · -125 at betPARX · break-even 55.6% · projection 12.3

Published Nov 6 8:19 PM ET · close 2.5 (-129)

Yaxel Lendeborg · Points Over 4.5

Replaced before tip-off

MIA @ GSW · -121 at betPARX · break-even 54.8% · projection 19.5

Published Nov 5 12:08 PM ET · replaced 4:04 PM ET

Yaxel Lendeborg · Points Over 4.5

Covered · 17

MIA @ GSW · -114 at betPARX · break-even 53.3% · projection 19.4

Published Nov 5 4:05 PM ET · close 19.5 (-112)

Nov 4

Fingerprint d46db911819433348625b21d91a45efb5e3db450ba3739fec1acf8a82be6addd

Trae Young · Assists Under 10.5

Replaced before tip-off

ATL @ WAS · -147 at DraftKings · break-even 59.5% · projection 9

Published Nov 4 7:37 AM ET · replaced 12:48 PM ET

Trae Young · Assists Under 10.5

Replaced before tip-off

ATL @ WAS · -143 at DraftKings · break-even 58.9% · projection 9

Published Nov 4 12:49 PM ET · replaced 3:18 PM ET

Trae Young · Assists Under 10.5

Replaced before tip-off

ATL @ WAS · -148 at FanDuel · break-even 59.7% · projection 9

Published Nov 4 3:19 PM ET · replaced 4:48 PM ET

Trae Young · Assists Under 10.5

Replaced before tip-off

ATL @ WAS · -145 at DraftKings · break-even 59.2% · projection 9

Published Nov 4 4:49 PM ET · replaced 6:18 PM ET

Trae Young · Assists Under 10.5

Covered · 6

ATL @ WAS · -134 at betPARX · break-even 57.3% · projection 8.9

Published Nov 4 6:19 PM ET · close 10.5 (-134)

Brandon Miller · Points Under 24.5

Replaced before tip-off

CHA @ BKN · -122 at FanDuel · break-even 54.9% · projection 18.1

Published Nov 3 5:05 PM ET · replaced 5:18 AM ET

Caleb Wilson · Rebounds Under 6.5

Replaced before tip-off

CHI @ NYK · -141 at DraftKings · break-even 58.5% · projection 5.4

Published Nov 4 6:37 AM ET · replaced 1:18 PM ET

Julius Randle · Points Under 18.5

Replaced before tip-off

CHA @ BKN · -106 at FanDuel · break-even 51.5% · projection 14.4

Published Nov 3 6:05 PM ET · replaced 5:18 AM ET

Julius Randle · Points Under 20.5

Missed · 22

CHA @ BKN · -113 at FanDuel · break-even 53.0% · projection 18.3

Published Nov 4 6:49 PM ET · close 20.5 (-113)

James Harden · Assists Under 6.5

Replaced before tip-off

CLE @ OKC · -125 at FanDuel · break-even 55.6% · projection 5

Published Nov 3 2:05 PM ET · replaced 5:18 AM ET

James Harden · Points Under 17.5

Replaced before tip-off

CLE @ OKC · -122 at FanDuel · break-even 54.9% · projection 13.6

Published Nov 3 2:05 PM ET · replaced 5:18 AM ET

James Harden · Rebounds Under 4.5

Replaced before tip-off

CLE @ OKC · -108 at FanDuel · break-even 51.9% · projection 3.9

Published Nov 3 2:05 PM ET · replaced 5:18 AM ET

Amen Thompson · Assists Under 4.5

Replaced before tip-off

MIN @ HOU · -165 at BetMGM · break-even 62.3% · projection 3.1

Published Nov 3 5:55 PM ET · replaced 5:18 AM ET

Jamal Murray · Assists Under 6.5

Replaced before tip-off

TOR @ DEN · -157 at Caesars · break-even 61.1% · projection 5.2

Published Nov 4 3:56 AM ET · replaced 5:18 AM ET

Nikola Jokic · Assists Under 9.5

Replaced before tip-off

TOR @ DEN · -114 at FanDuel · break-even 53.3% · projection 8.8

Published Nov 4 8:15 PM ET · replaced 5:18 AM ET

Nikola Jokic · Points Under 25.5

Replaced before tip-off

TOR @ DEN · -125 at Fanatics · break-even 55.6% · projection 22.9

Published Nov 4 10:16 PM ET · replaced 5:18 AM ET

Nikola Jokic · Points Under 24.5

Replaced before tip-off

TOR @ DEN · -104 at DraftKings · break-even 51.0% · projection 21.8

Published Nov 4 5:18 AM ET · replaced 8:33 PM ET

Nikola Jokic · Points Under 25.5

Missed · 32

TOR @ DEN · -110 at BetMGM · break-even 52.4% · projection 21.8

Published Nov 5 8:34 PM ET · close 25.5 (-111)

Nikola Jokic · Rebounds Under 12.5

Replaced before tip-off

TOR @ DEN · -120 at Fanatics · break-even 54.5% · projection 10.6

Published Nov 3 6:15 PM ET · replaced 5:18 AM ET

Nikola Jokic · Rebounds Under 11.5

Replaced before tip-off

TOR @ DEN · -106 at FanDuel · break-even 51.5% · projection 11.1

Published Nov 5 8:34 PM ET · replaced 8:48 PM ET

Nikola Jokic · Rebounds Under 11.5

Covered · 10

TOR @ DEN · -102 at FanDuel · break-even 50.5% · projection 11.1

Published Nov 5 8:49 PM ET · close 11.5 (-102)

Nov 2

Fingerprint 2741ccb53882d7e983dd9be1fbc01519fd1933e23642ae2b386b7d9d950747e3

James Harden · Assists Under 6.5

Replaced before tip-off

OKC @ CLE · +100 at FanDuel · break-even 50.0% · projection 5.8

Published Nov 1 6:11 PM ET · replaced 5:16 AM ET

Brandon Miller · Points Under 23.5

Replaced before tip-off

DET @ CHA · -120 at Fanatics · break-even 54.5% · projection 20.6

Published Nov 2 12:42 AM ET · replaced 5:16 AM ET

Trae Young · Assists Under 10.5

Replaced before tip-off

WAS @ ORL · -146 at DraftKings · break-even 59.4% · projection 8.9

Published Nov 2 9:13 AM ET · replaced 12:14 PM ET

Trae Young · Assists Under 10.5

Replaced before tip-off

WAS @ ORL · -145 at Caesars · break-even 59.2% · projection 8.9

Published Nov 2 12:15 PM ET · replaced 1:14 PM ET

Trae Young · Assists Under 10.5

Covered · 9

WAS @ ORL · -146 at FanDuel · break-even 59.4% · projection 8.9

Published Nov 2 1:15 PM ET · close 9.5 (+100)

Oct 31

Fingerprint 16fb8213960124a90ee9f9585b8ec1ac5ee394b055342642e50c63a985ef14fd

Donovan Mitchell · Assists Under 5.5

Replaced before tip-off

CLE @ MIL · -157 at DraftKings · break-even 61.1% · projection 4.3

Published Oct 31 6:28 AM ET · replaced 6:30 AM ET

James Harden · Assists Under 7.5

Replaced before tip-off

CLE @ MIL · -158 at FanDuel · break-even 61.2% · projection 5.8

Published Oct 31 12:07 AM ET · replaced 6:30 AM ET

Oct 29

Fingerprint 166a3df82d96f9b9280cc4353b9160943bca9c9d9ba0642e9861f6ae295bf9be

Donovan Mitchell · Assists Under 5.5

Replaced before tip-off

CLE @ ATL · -162 at FanDuel · break-even 61.8% · projection 3.8

Published Oct 29 12:33 AM ET · replaced 6:20 AM ET

Donovan Mitchell · Assists Under 5.5

Replaced before tip-off

CLE @ ATL · -140 at BetMGM · break-even 58.3% · projection 4.1

Published Oct 29 2:04 PM ET · replaced 6:05 PM ET

Oct 28

Fingerprint aa3d0007e1d7b9d22db26ef7ee0db46b635c281becbbd119f679bad8cfcf569f

James Harden · Assists Under 7.5

Replaced before tip-off

WAS @ CLE · -146 at FanDuel · break-even 59.4% · projection 6

Published Oct 28 11:10 PM ET · replaced 6:14 AM ET

Oct 26

Fingerprint 4546bb1a45006f2e226677c064af212f25a7a0cf3f3d2162765674ffdcff9e23

Nikola Jokic · Assists Under 10.5

Missed · 11

GSW @ DEN · -142 at DraftKings · break-even 58.7% · projection 8.8

Published Oct 26 1:28 PM ET · close 9.5 (+108)

Oct 25

Fingerprint bca16b9664971156b036771dd84dc3f435b5637a3ede53b968d49a27198c41cb

Cade Cunningham · Assists Under 9.5

Covered · 8

DET @ PHI · +102 at FanDuel · break-even 49.5% · projection 7.5

Published Oct 25 11:03 PM ET · close 9.5 (-113)

Cade Cunningham · Rebounds Under 6.5

Missed · 8

DET @ PHI · -147 at DraftKings · break-even 59.5% · projection 4.9

Published Oct 25 10:04 AM ET · close 5.5 (-125)

Oct 23

Fingerprint 1cc364afd5f94f1156d8e9048e86202420dda1475315c39eeff40d3a9e62b22c

Cade Cunningham · Assists Under 9.5

Replaced before tip-off

DET @ MIA · -125 at DraftKings · break-even 55.6% · projection 7.7

Published Oct 22 6:18 PM ET · replaced 6:17 AM ET

Cade Cunningham · Assists Under 9.5

Covered · 8

DET @ MIA · -129 at DraftKings · break-even 56.3% · projection 8.2

Published Oct 23 6:17 AM ET · close 9.5 (-123)

Alperen Sengun · Rebounds Under 9.5

Replaced before tip-off

HOU @ SAS · -136 at FanDuel · break-even 57.6% · projection 7.6

Published Oct 22 1:27 AM ET · replaced 6:17 AM ET

Rui Hachimura · Rebounds Under 5.5

Replaced before tip-off

LAC @ LAL · +102 at FanDuel · break-even 49.5% · projection 3.5

Published Oct 23 9:59 PM ET · replaced 6:17 AM ET

Rui Hachimura · Rebounds Under 5.5

Missed · 6

LAC @ LAL · +110 at betPARX · break-even 47.6% · projection 4.1

Published Oct 23 6:17 AM ET · close 5.5 (-122)

Oct 22

Fingerprint 23d5c015adc08edeaeab7b86bfb1683de4a73ad9814363ffe36e98f43ade67a4

Donovan Mitchell · Assists Under 5.5

Covered · 3

CLE @ PHI · -151 at DraftKings · break-even 60.2% · projection 4.2

Published Oct 21 8:09 AM ET · close 4.5 (-113)

Oct 20

Fingerprint 27ddc4cfb53c7503a7383453e5ba5d5c4e0719bd4d1c2fe268bd92f2a0d8d187

Cade Cunningham · Assists Under 9.5

Covered · 8

BOS @ DET · -148 at betPARX · break-even 59.7% · projection 8.2

Published Oct 20 9:54 AM ET · close 9.5 (-137)