Steals Gap (Price Edge)

Steals where the projection and the line differ by 0.5 or more. Steals are a low-count, high-variance market. Selected by price edge instead of stat gap: the model's chance for the marked side, set against the quoted price, must exceed the chance that price needs by about one point, and comparisons are ordered by that price edge.

10-5 · 15 graded · break-even 58.3%

Nov 6

Fingerprint 29456bd6ab6d55d9893ff35c28b455cd30b219a32d55146fa0a5b1413e909d95

Cooper Flagg · Steals Under 1.5

Missed · 3

UTA @ DAL · -123 at DraftKings · break-even 55.2% · projection 1.4

Published Nov 6 6:20 PM ET · close 1.5 (-141)

Immanuel Quickley · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

TOR @ MIL · -134 at betPARX · break-even 57.3% · projection 1.1

Published Nov 6 11:40 AM ET · replaced 1:06 PM ET

Immanuel Quickley · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

TOR @ MIL · -117 at betPARX · break-even 53.9% · projection 1.1

Published Nov 6 2:00 PM ET · replaced 7:06 PM ET

Ja'Kobe Walter · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

TOR @ MIL · -122 at betPARX · break-even 54.9% · projection 1.3

Published Nov 6 11:40 AM ET · replaced 1:06 PM ET

Devin Vassell · Steals Under 1.5

Covered · 1

SAS @ SAC · -117 at betPARX · break-even 53.9% · projection 1.4

Published Nov 6 12:40 PM ET · close 1.5 (-115)

Nov 4

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Anfernee Simons · Steals Under 0.5

Replaced before tip-off

PHI @ DET · -117 at betPARX · break-even 53.9% · projection 0.4

Published Nov 4 11:27 AM ET · replaced 12:48 PM ET

LeBron James · Steals Under 1.5

Covered · 1

PHI @ DET · -143 at betPARX · break-even 58.9% · projection 1.2

Published Nov 4 11:27 AM ET · close 1.5 (-200)

Paul Reed · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

PHI @ DET · -177 at DraftKings · break-even 63.9% · projection 0.8

Published Nov 4 9:15 PM ET · replaced 5:57 AM ET

Moussa Diabate · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

CHA @ BKN · -192 at DraftKings · break-even 65.8% · projection 0.9

Published Nov 4 10:46 PM ET · replaced 5:57 AM ET

Moussa Diabate · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

CHA @ BKN · -178 at DraftKings · break-even 64.0% · projection 1

Published Nov 4 8:17 AM ET · replaced 1:18 PM ET

Norman Powell · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

CHI @ NYK · -193 at DraftKings · break-even 65.9% · projection 0.9

Published Nov 4 8:57 AM ET · replaced 1:18 PM ET

LaMelo Ball · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

MIN @ HOU · -142 at DraftKings · break-even 58.7% · projection 1.2

Published Nov 4 11:16 PM ET · replaced 5:57 AM ET

LaMelo Ball · Steals Under 1.5

Missed · 3

MIN @ HOU · -136 at DraftKings · break-even 57.6% · projection 1.3

Published Nov 4 6:27 AM ET · close 1.5 (-136)

Christian Braun · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

TOR @ DEN · -182 at DraftKings · break-even 64.5% · projection 1

Published Nov 4 6:27 AM ET · replaced 8:33 PM ET

Cooper Flagg · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

DAL @ SAS · -150 at DraftKings · break-even 60.0% · projection 1.1

Published Nov 4 5:37 AM ET · replaced 5:57 AM ET

Cooper Flagg · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

DAL @ SAS · -150 at DraftKings · break-even 60.0% · projection 1.1

Published Nov 4 6:27 AM ET · replaced 2:18 PM ET

Cooper Flagg · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

DAL @ SAS · -149 at DraftKings · break-even 59.8% · projection 1.2

Published Nov 4 2:57 PM ET · replaced 8:18 PM ET

Cooper Flagg · Steals Under 1.5

Covered · 0

DAL @ SAS · -134 at DraftKings · break-even 57.3% · projection 1.2

Published Nov 5 8:22 PM ET · close 1.5 (-141)

Precious Achiuwa · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

LAL @ SAC · -200 at betPARX · break-even 66.7% · projection 0.8

Published Nov 4 12:57 PM ET · replaced 4:18 PM ET

Nov 2

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Paul Reed · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

DET @ CHA · -186 at betPARX · break-even 65.0% · projection 0.9

Published Nov 2 11:13 AM ET · replaced 12:44 PM ET

Dejounte Murray · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

NOP @ MEM · -125 at betPARX · break-even 55.6% · projection 1.3

Published Nov 2 12:03 PM ET · replaced 1:59 PM ET

Dejounte Murray · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

NOP @ MEM · -114 at betPARX · break-even 53.3% · projection 1.3

Published Nov 2 2:13 PM ET · replaced 5:45 PM ET

Jeremiah Fears · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

NOP @ MEM · -178 at DraftKings · break-even 64.0% · projection 1

Published Nov 2 2:33 PM ET · replaced 5:45 PM ET

Jeremiah Fears · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

NOP @ MEM · -164 at DraftKings · break-even 62.1% · projection 1.1

Published Nov 2 5:47 PM ET · replaced 7:30 PM ET

Jeremiah Fears · Steals Under 1.5

Covered · 0

NOP @ MEM · -149 at DraftKings · break-even 59.8% · projection 1.1

Published Nov 3 7:32 PM ET · close 1.5 (-184)

LaMelo Ball · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

MIL @ MIN · -106 at betPARX · break-even 51.5% · projection 1.4

Published Nov 3 7:24 PM ET · replaced 7:45 PM ET

LaMelo Ball · Steals Under 1.5

Covered · 1

MIL @ MIN · -105 at betPARX · break-even 51.2% · projection 1.4

Published Nov 3 7:49 PM ET · close 1.5 (-105)

Ty Jerome · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

NOP @ MEM · -159 at betPARX · break-even 61.4% · projection 1

Published Nov 2 12:03 PM ET · replaced 5:45 PM ET

Ty Jerome · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

NOP @ MEM · -142 at DraftKings · break-even 58.7% · projection 1

Published Nov 2 5:47 PM ET · replaced 7:30 PM ET

Ty Jerome · Steals Under 1.5

Missed · 2

NOP @ MEM · -159 at betPARX · break-even 61.4% · projection 1

Published Nov 3 7:32 PM ET · close 1.5 (-159)

Christian Braun · Steals Under 1.5

Missed · 2

POR @ DEN · -157 at betPARX · break-even 61.1% · projection 1

Published Nov 2 12:43 PM ET · close 1.5 (-155)

Immanuel Quickley · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

TOR @ LAC · -125 at betPARX · break-even 55.6% · projection 1.2

Published Nov 2 12:03 PM ET · replaced 4:14 PM ET

Immanuel Quickley · Steals Under 1.5

Covered · 1

TOR @ LAC · -125 at betPARX · break-even 55.6% · projection 1.2

Published Nov 2 4:34 PM ET · close 1.5 (-125)

Kris Dunn · Steals Under 2.5

Replaced before tip-off

TOR @ LAC · -182 at betPARX · break-even 64.5% · projection 1.6

Published Nov 2 12:03 PM ET · replaced 3:29 PM ET

Kris Dunn · Steals Under 2.5

Replaced before tip-off

TOR @ LAC · -186 at betPARX · break-even 65.0% · projection 1.6

Published Nov 2 3:31 PM ET · replaced 4:14 PM ET

Kris Dunn · Steals Under 2.5

Replaced before tip-off

TOR @ LAC · -152 at betPARX · break-even 60.3% · projection 1.8

Published Nov 2 4:24 PM ET · replaced 9:30 PM ET

Kris Dunn · Steals Under 2.5

Covered · 2

TOR @ LAC · -175 at betPARX · break-even 63.6% · projection 1.8

Published Nov 3 9:33 PM ET · close 2.5 (-175)

Nov 1

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Brandin Podziemski · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

LAC @ GSW · -138 at DraftKings · break-even 58.0% · projection 0.9

Published Nov 1 3:40 AM ET · replaced 5:21 AM ET

Brandin Podziemski · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

LAC @ GSW · -138 at DraftKings · break-even 58.0% · projection 1.1

Published Nov 1 5:21 AM ET · replaced 7:42 PM ET

Brandin Podziemski · Steals Under 1.5

Covered · 0

LAC @ GSW · -157 at betPARX · break-even 61.1% · projection 1.1

Published Nov 2 7:45 PM ET · close 1.5 (-155)

Kris Dunn · Steals Under 2.5

Replaced before tip-off

LAC @ GSW · -195 at DraftKings · break-even 66.1% · projection 1.9

Published Nov 1 9:00 AM ET · replaced 7:42 PM ET

Immanuel Quickley · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

TOR @ LAL · -162 at betPARX · break-even 61.8% · projection 1

Published Nov 1 12:01 PM ET · replaced 4:12 PM ET

Luka Doncic · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

TOR @ LAL · -120 at betPARX · break-even 54.5% · projection 1.4

Published Nov 1 12:01 PM ET · replaced 4:12 PM ET

Luka Doncic · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

TOR @ LAL · -115 at betPARX · break-even 53.5% · projection 1.4

Published Nov 1 4:16 PM ET · replaced 8:58 PM ET

Luka Doncic · Steals Under 1.5

Missed · 5

TOR @ LAL · -110 at betPARX · break-even 52.4% · projection 1.4

Published Nov 2 8:59 PM ET · close 1.5 (-110)

Oct 31

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Keyonte George · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

POR @ UTA · -180 at betPARX · break-even 64.3% · projection 0.9

Published Oct 31 11:48 AM ET · replaced 2:25 PM ET

Keyonte George · Steals Under 1.5

Covered · 1

POR @ UTA · -190 at betPARX · break-even 65.5% · projection 0.9

Published Oct 31 2:39 PM ET · close 1.5 (-190)

LeBron James · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

PHI @ CHA · -152 at betPARX · break-even 60.3% · projection 1.1

Published Oct 31 11:38 AM ET · replaced 1:25 PM ET

VJ Edgecombe · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

PHI @ CHA · -171 at DraftKings · break-even 63.1% · projection 0.9

Published Oct 31 1:09 PM ET · replaced 1:25 PM ET

LaMelo Ball · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

MIN @ SAS · -182 at DraftKings · break-even 64.5% · projection 1

Published Oct 31 6:28 AM ET · replaced 6:42 AM ET

Oct 30

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VJ Edgecombe · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

NYK @ PHI · -161 at DraftKings · break-even 61.7% · projection 0.9

Published Oct 30 8:56 AM ET · replaced 4:22 PM ET

Oct 29

Fingerprint 166a3df82d96f9b9280cc4353b9160943bca9c9d9ba0642e9861f6ae295bf9be

Dejounte Murray · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

SAC @ NOP · -102 at DraftKings · break-even 50.5% · projection 1.3

Published Oct 29 4:44 PM ET · replaced 6:35 PM ET

Oct 28

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Josh Hart · Steals Under 1.5

Replaced before tip-off

NYK @ CHI · -102 at DraftKings · break-even 50.5% · projection 1.3

Published Oct 28 5:32 PM ET · replaced 7:18 PM ET

Kris Dunn · Steals Under 2.5

Covered · 1

LAL @ LAC · -152 at betPARX · break-even 60.3% · projection 1.6

Published Oct 28 4:21 PM ET · close 2.5 (-159)